Climate Change Impacts in Bolivia

     In South America, there were many interesting points I read about for the future regional climate changes.  There is a negative trend in the mean precipitation.  There is also noticeable glacial retreat in the Tropical Andes.  The precipitation changes were consistent with El Nino, for example the rainfall would increase over southeastern and northwestern South America, but decrease over eastern Amazonia.  The predicted future regional climate changes are that the temperatures will increase over the whole country, and there will also be an increase in precipitation in south South America, and a decrease in the extreme north of the continent.  

     Bolivia is located in Central and South America.  Some of the major impacts that happen in and around my country fall under all three systems which are physical, biological, and human and management.  The physical systems that have an impact are floods, rivers, lakes, and drought which have a medium impact but are a major contribution to climate change.  The biological system that has an impact is wildfires with minor contributions to climate change.  Lastly, the human and managed systems including livelihoods, health, and economics have a medium impact but are also a large contributor to climate change.  Some key risks that my country is facing are water availability in places that depend on glacier-melt, and also places that do not receive a lot of precipitation.  Another key risk is flooding and landslides in urban and rural areas because of extreme precipitation.  There is also decreased food production and quality.  The last key risk my country faces is the spread of diseases in latitude and altitude from blood-sucking arthropods.  

      After reading the detailed look at the future climate, there are many interesting things to be seen.  There already have been increasing trends in annual rainfall in southeast South America, and decreasing trends in central-Southern Chile.  Some predictions from the article suggest that there will be an increase in temperatures by 2100.  Changes in stream flow and water availability were observed and projected to continue in the future affecting already vulnerable regions.  Land use changes are one of the main contributors to environmental degradation which leads to negative impacts of climate change.  Sea level rise and human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems pose a threat to fish stocks, corals, and tourism.  Changes in agriculture productivity with consequences for food security are associated with climate change.  Lastly, changes in weather and climate patterns are having a negative affect on human health by increasing morbidity, mortality, and disabilities.   

     The most interesting threat that I choose was the flooding and landslides.  Flooding and landslides in rural and urban areas will affect everyone and everything.  Being a business major, I do care about economics, and to rebuild or clear all of the damages done from a landslide or flooding would be very expensive.  It would be hard for anyone to recover from a big event of landslides and/or flooding.  I also care a lot for animals.  Back at my house, we have a total of seven animals right now.  Many animals do not have wings including my favorite ones, so it would be very hard for them to escape the flooding as well as the landslides.  These are some reasons why this vulnerability sticks out as a big one in my head as opposed to some of the other ones I could have chosen.

This image shows places with semi-arid climates which affects their water availability.

Severe Weather in Bolivia

Tornadoes are able to form in regions where there is strong vertical wind shear. The wind speeds for a tornado range from 70 to 300 mph and the pressure can be as low as 900 mb.  They usually are formed in big thunder storms.  Some requirements that a tornado needs to form is cold outflow of air from downdrafts that does not undercut the updraft.  The strong vertical wind shear is what helps to create the horizontal spin, and then when the air is lifted, it begins to rotate.  Tornadoes become mesocyclones when the rotating air column exceeds 5 to 10 km diameter.  This just shows that the scale of the tornado is large enough to fit in the mesoscale criteria.

      In the Unites States tornadoes usually travel to the northeast.   The reason this is because the majority of tornadoes are formed east of the Rocky Mountains also the predominant winds in the Northern Hemisphere are Westerlies which drives the tornadoes east. Tornadoes do not happen in Bolivia because it is very mountainous in Bolivia.  There are 1,200 tornadoes in the US on average. < http://www.noaa.gov/features/protecting/tornados101.html  >  The average number of tornadoes in Bolivia is zero.  This website lists all the tornadoes to happen in South America and Bolivia was not on it.  <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Southern_Hemisphere_tornadoes_and_tornado_outbreaks#South_America >

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_climatology#mediaviewer/File:Pasillo_de_los_tornads_de_Am%C3%A9rica_del_Sur.jpg

The picture above shows the zone of tornadoes in South America.  The gray zone is high risk and the red zone is medium risk areas.  Bolivia is in the top right of this picture and is not affected by the tornadoes. 

Based on this graph it seems like tornadoes have been increasing over time.  This could be inaccurate because the first dates on this graph date all the way back to the 1950’s.  Back then they didn’t have the same advanced tools and technology to measure tornadoes as we do now, which could be one reason why it seems to be increasing over time.

The three main requirements for hurricane to form are usually over tropical waters where the winds are light and water temperature is warm typically over 80 degrees F, and the humidity is high extending up through the troposphere.  Bolivia does not meet these requirements.  The continent is hardly ever struck with hurricanes. The reason for this is that there are many fronts and air masses that push the hurricanes more north.  Also the conditions in the South Atlantic Ocean are too hostile for hurricanes to form.  There are three main hurricane formation regions, and the word for a hurricane differs from what region in the world we are referring to. In the Atlantic and east pacific it is called hurricane. In the Indian Ocean and near Australia it is called cyclones, and off the coast of China and Indonesia it is called typhoons.

In the US hurricanes usually form in the Caribbean Sea and then travel to the northwest until they hit a large land mass.  Also the Westerlies push the storms back to the east which causes them to travel to northern Europe.  The few that make it onto US landmasses typically break up because of the friction with land and those that turn early and go back out to the Atlantic Ocean and break down because of cooler ocean temperatures.  There are no hurricanes that happen in Bolivia.  There are about 5 to 6 hurricanes that hit yearly. <http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E19.html>  I couldn't find a website that said that there were no hurricanes, but this picture below shows that there has been no hurricanes that hit anywhere neat Bolivia.

http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Hurricane%20History%20Map%20south%20america&qs=n&form=QBIR&pq=hurricane%20history%20map%20south%20america&sc=0-28&sp=-1&sk=#view=detail&id=D8DFF8AEEAA5EB091AD9F282DD8F5C977ABB4353&selectedIndex=2

Daily Weather in Bolivia

       The capital city of Bolivia, is Sucre. My three day forecast will cover Thursday October 30th, Friday October 31st, and Saturday November 1st.  The forecast for Thursday, October 30th is the high being 75 degrees Fahrenheit, and the low at 53 degrees Fahrenheit.  The chance of precipitation percentage is 50 percent.  For Friday, October 31st, the forecast showed the high being 77 degrees Fahrenheit, and the lows being 52 degrees Fahrenheit.  The percent for precipitation is 20 percent.  Lastly, on Saturday, November 1st, the forecast showed the highs being at 72 degrees Fahrenheit and the lows at 51 degrees Fahrenheit.  There is a 50 percent chance of it raining on this day.  The pressure over these three days stayed the same.  The average wind speed was 11 miles per hour.  The wind speed decreased over the three day period.

Current Satellite Image of Sucre, Bolivia

       There are many visible clouds.  There are some, but only a few low and warm clouds.  Most of the clouds are high and cold clouds.  This means that they are far away from the surface.  When looking at the radar map, you can see light precipitation in some areas Sucre.  There is no heavy precipitation anywhere.   There are lakes around Sucre.  There is no green coloration, which means that there is no forests or parks.   The surface is all gray and rough which represents  mountains and cities. 

     This map shows a zoomed in perspective of my country.  The isobar pressures on this map range from 1008 mb all the way to 1021 mb.  There are no low pressures shown on this zoomed in map.  There is a big low pressure right around the middle, and it is equal to 1008 mb.

     This is a more broad view, which gives a wider look of my country and its surroundings.  On this map there are isobars ranging from 1012 mb to 1032mb.  There are many high and low pressures all around this map, three of each.  There are a few fronts on this map as well.  There are both cold fronts, and warm fronts.  Most are located southeast of my country, but some are also located southwest of Bolivia. 

Global and Local Winds in Bolivia

     The latitude and longitude of Bolivia is 16.7120 degrees south, and 64.660 degrees west.  The hemisphere it is located in is the southern western hemisphere.  Bolivia resides in the Hadley cell of the three "atmospheric cell."   The wind belt that Bolivia resides on is the tropical easterlies.  The wind direction for Bolivia is southeast.  My country is not located on a main pressure belt.  The reason for this is because it is located between ITCZ and the subtropical high.  My country does not have any special areas such as doldrums, etc. because it's located between both high and low pressure belts.

this pictures is from: http://www.windmission.dk/Education/Wind/Pressure/images/Wheelock%20College%20r.jpg

          Bolivia has a subtropical highland climate.  It is located in the Hadley's cell atmospheric cell.  The winds blow in southwest direction, and they have southeasterly trades.  Bolivia has a warm climate due to the location which is not by any of the major poles.  The wind blows leeward, and the air rises because my country is located closer to the equator.
          Bolivia does have many mountains.  The highest mountain is Illimani and it is located in western Bolivia.  Five types of winds that are associated with mountains are foehn, chinook, mountain, valley, and ketabatic.  My country experiences mountain and valley winds.  Bolivia does not have a coastline.  There is land and sea breezes associated with coastlines.  Bolivia does not experience these because it is surrounded by other South American countries.  

Typical Tourism and Weather in Bolivia

My country is located in the southern hemisphere, I based my maximum and minimum temperatures, and weather patterns based on my countries capital which is Sucre, Bolivia.  Their winter solstice occurs on June 21.  The average max temperature during this month is 66 degrees Fahrenheit.  The minimum average temperature is 47 degrees Fahrenheit.  During this month it is mostly sunny, but you can get some rain.  The average monthly amount of precipitation is .4 inches.  This marks the beginning of a new agriculture year, and is accompanied by festivals.

Bolivia’s summer solstice happens on December 21.  The average maximum temperature for this month is 68 degrees Fahrenheit.  The average minimum temperature is 55 degrees Fahrenheit.  During the summer solstice month, you can expect lots of rain.  There is an average of 3.5 inches of rain, and there are often hazardous floods during this month. 

The spring solstice in Bolivia takes place on March 20^th.  The average maximum temperature is 67 degrees Fahrenheit.  The average lowest temperature during this month is 54.  During this month you can expect rain.  The average amount of rain in March is 3.1 inches. 

Lastly, the Autumnal solstice happens on September 22.  The average maximum temperature is 68 degrees Fahrenheit.  The average lowest temperature is 51 degrees Fahrenheit.  During this month you can expect showers of rain.  The average monthly precipitation during this month is .8 inches. 

The best month to visit Bolivia would be in the winter solstice.  One activity that you would be able to do is go to the winter solstice festival.  Another activity that you would be able to take part in is seeing the Uyuni Salt Flats.  There aren’t many potential weather hazards at this time of the year.  The weather is dry and warm, but you still have a chance of little rain showers.  “If you told me there was a better place in South America to visit, I wouldn’t Bolivia.”

Uyuni Salt Flats